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2:00PM Water Cooler 3/4/2024 | bare capitalism

2:00PM Water Cooler 3/4/2024 | bare capitalism

By Lambert Strether of Corrente.

Affected person readers, the Supreme Courtroom choice on Anderson, the Colorado Part Three case that sought to throw Trump off the poll below Part Three of the Fourteenth Modification, dropped simply as I used to be beginning, so I needed to concentrate on that (and spend a while doing a contented dance). The remainder of Water Cooler is greater than somewhat gappy, so let me go to work remedying that now… –lambert

Fowl Tune of the Day

Speckled Warbler, Coominglah State Forest (-24.9097, 150.9734), North Burnett, Queensland, Australia.

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“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles

The Constitutional Order (Revolt)

“Colorado can’t disqualify Donald Trump for working for president below rebel clause, U.S. Supreme Courtroom guidelines” [Colorado Sun]. “The U.S. Supreme Courtroom unanimously dominated Monday that Donald Trump ought to seem on Colorado’s presidential major poll and that any votes forged for him be counted, rejecting a Colorado Supreme Courtroom discovering that the Republican is disqualified from working for president once more as a result of he violated the so-called rebel clause within the Structure. The excessive court docket’s justices dominated that relating to presidential and different federal candidates, Congress, not states, are answerable for imposing the clause, Part 3 of the 14th Modification… Additional, a majority of the justices discovered that Congress must go particular laws to implement Part 3 of the 14th modification.” • So, Part 5 is just not a hood decoration. 9-0. I wouldn’t go as far as to name Federalist Society luminaries Baude and Paulsen frivolous, however….

“Supreme Courtroom retains Trump on poll, rejects Colorado voter problem” [WaPo]. “The choice leaves Trump because the main candidate for the Republican nomination and for now removes the Supreme Courtroom from immediately figuring out the trail of the 2024 presidential election. The justices fast-tracked the problem from voters in Colorado…. In an indication of the excessive court docket’s consciousness of the election calendar, the justices took the bizarre step of asserting the opinion on the Supreme Courtroom’s web site on a day when the court docket is just not in session, as an alternative of issuing it from the bench later this month…. Trump reacted to the choice with a short, all-caps message on his social media website. ‘BIG WIN FOR AMERICA!!!’ he wrote.”

“States can’t kick Trump off poll, Supreme Courtroom says” [Politico]. “States haven’t any authority to take away Donald Trump from the 2024 presidential poll, the Supreme Courtroom dominated unanimously Monday, short-circuiting efforts by his detractors to declare him disqualified over his position within the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the Capitol. The justices didn’t weigh in on the fraught query of whether or not Trump engaged in an rebel by making an attempt to subvert the 2020 election outcomes or stoking the violence on Jan. 6. However the excessive court docket dominated in an unsigned opinion that solely Congress, not the states, can disqualify a presidential candidate below the Structure’s ‘rebel clause.”… The end result — which got here in the future earlier than the Tremendous Tuesday primaries — was anticipated.’” • Right here is the opinion:

“Donald J. Trump, Petitioner v. Norma Anderson, et al.” (PDF) [Supreme Court of the United States]. Since it is a unanimous opinion — i.e., I don’t have to fret about entering into mattress with members of the Federalist Society — let me do a brief blissful dance for mentioning among the salient options of the case in “Technique to Kick Trump Off the Poll Below the Fourteenth Modification Already Inflicting Chaos (So In Re Griffin Was Appropriately Determined)“:

Baude and Paulsen aren’t doing a severe studying. In [Justice Samuel] Chase’s phrase [from In Re Griffin], “it have to be ascertained what explicit people are embraced by the definition,” we acknowledge what within the programming and math worlds is known as a set membership perform: “A perform that specifies the diploma to which a given enter [say, Alexander Stephens] belongs to a set [say, insurrectionists].” That’s, we have to decide the set of all insurrectionists; how can we “verify” that potential “inputs” to that set belong to it? That technique of ascertainment is unknown, which is why “efficient outcomes, proceedings, proof, choices, and enforcement of selections, roughly formal, are indispensable.” We don’t must do comparable “ascertainment” for birthright citizenship, privileges or immunities, due course of, and equal safety; all these are properly understood, as the tactic to determine an insurrectionist was not (on condition that it had by no means been completed earlier than!). Chase conclude that these strategies can “these can solely be supplied by Congress.”

The Supreme Courtroom didn’t get all mathy. Nonetheless:

“Ascertainment”, then, is a central difficulty.

And I wrote:

What Chase in Griffin sought to keep away from, and Baude and Paulsen incited by “Sweep and Drive” has now come to go, pushed by an unholy alliance of Federalist Society members and liberal Democrat NGOs MR SUBLIMINAL Does the court docket give me go away to slay them outright?[1]. Now we have “numerous” “State” “actors” “exercising their regular authority with respect to such issues” as each Colorado and Maine have disqualifed Trump from the poll.

And what do we now have? Two totally different (“numerous”) branches of presidency, judicial and government, in two states utilizing two fully totally different evidentiary requirements. Add one or two extra states, one other department, and some extra evidentiary requirements, and also you’ve bought a combinatorial explosion of “regular authority”! … Chief Justice Chase writes in In Re Griffin:

[A] building, which should essentially event nice private and non-private mischief, must not ever be most popular to a building which is able to event neither, or neither in so nice diploma, until the phrases of the instrument completely require such desire.

“Nice private and non-private mischief” is strictly what is going on right here. That is the Pandora’s field that “Sweep and Drive” has gleefully opened. These already whacky outcomes present the clearest potential indication that Griffin was accurately determined, and that there must be nationwide laws to deal with the ascertainment points Chase described.

And the Supreme Courtroom targeted on totally different evidentiary requirements as properly:

In addition to the chaotic consequence:

Now, to be truthful, I solely used the phrase “chaos” within the headline; for no matter cause, the Courtroom, whereas citing to Griffen for “ascertainment,” didn’t cite to Griffin for the seeminly synonymous “nice private and non-private mischief,” or for Chase’s precept of building based mostly on avoiding it. I additionally didn’t anticipate the firmness with which the Courts would rule that the Presidential poll, major or not, is a Federal difficulty. Nonetheless [lambert preens] not too dangerous for a humble blogger, particularly within the face of an avalanche of propaganda opposing views throughout the political spectrum from liberal Democrats to By no means Trumpers. Take that, Larry Tribe! Take that, J. Michael Luttig!

NOTE: Studying the choice, 9-0 is as near an open-and-shut case as there’s, whatever the frothing and stamping of motivated reasoners. I don’t assume we should always infer the Courtroom’s views on upcoming Trump circumstances from this consequence, or the timing. They is probably not open and shut.

Capitol Seizure

“Some Jan. 6 sentences had been improperly lengthened, appeals court docket guidelines” [Politico]. “A federal appeals court docket panel dominated Friday that Jan. 6 defendants who obstructed Congress’ work had their sentences improperly lengthened by judges who decided that that they had interfered with the ‘administration of justice.’… Federal sentencing tips encourage judges to use the ‘administration of justice’ enhancement to defendants who disrupt judicial proceedings like grand jury investigations or court docket hearings. The enhancement can enhance advisable sentences by greater than a 12 months. The Justice Division has routinely requested judges to use the enhancement to defendants who stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, arguing that the session of Congress that day — meant to depend electoral votes and certify the outcomes of the 2020 election — must be thought of the equal of a judicial continuing.” That’s a goofy argument! Congress and the Judiciary are separate branches of presidency! And so: “A 3-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Courtroom of Appeals rejected that argument in an enchantment introduced by Larry Brock, a Jan. 6 defendant who was sentenced final 12 months to a two-year jail time period for obstructing Congress’ proceedings. U.S. District Choose John Bates — a George W. Bush appointee — calculated Brock’s sentence by together with the enhancement for interfering with ‘administration of justice.’ …. Brock was among the many earliest rioters to breach the Capitol, carrying army gear and surging with the mob onto the Senate flooring. The appeals court docket panel affirmed Brock’s felony conviction for his motion however ordered Bates to resentence him with out the enhancement hooked up. ‘Brock’s interference with one stage of the electoral school vote-counting course of — whereas little doubt endangering our democratic processes and briefly derailing Congress’s constitutional work — didn’t intrude with the ‘administration of justice,” wrote Choose Patricia Millett in a unanimous ruling joined by Judges Cornelia Pillard and Judith Rogers.” • I really like this use of the phrase “enhancement.”


Lower than a 12 months to go!

[To come]


“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison

Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “An infection Management, Emergency Administration, Security, and Common Ideas” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).

Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!

Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater stories); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).

Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Authorities of Canada).

Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).

Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).

Keep secure on the market!

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TABLE 1: Each day Covid Charts


1) for charts new at this time; all others should not up to date.

2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”


[1] (Biobot) Biobot drops, conformant to Walgreen positivity information (if that’s certainly not a knowledge artifact). Observe, nevertheless, the world “below the curve,” apart from peaks. That space is bigger below Biden than below Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if erratically.

[2] (Biobot) Regional separation re-emerges.

[3] (CDC Variants) As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information can be reported biweekly, based mostly on the provision of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.

[4] (ER) Doesn’t assist Biobot information. “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.”

[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Not flattening.

[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.

[7] (Walgreens) That’s a giant drop! It will be attention-grabbing to survey this inhabitants typically; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and massive peer strain, went and bought examined anyhow.

[8] (Cleveland) Flattening, in line with Biobot information.

[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Down, albeit within the rear view mirror.

[10] (Vacationers: Variants) Backward revisions take away NV.1 information. JN.1 dominates totally.

Stats Watch

There aren’t any official statistics of curiosity at this time.

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Transportation: “Three Norfolk Southern trains derail in Pennsylvania” [The Hill]. “Three Norfolk Southern trains derailed after a collision in jap Pennsylvania that, to date, has not induced any accidents or launched hazardous supplies. The incident occurred close to Easton, Pa., Saturday morning alongside the Lehigh River. The Nationwide Transportation Security Board (NTSB) mentioned an unknown variety of vehicles from these trains have derailed. ‘Preliminary info signifies that an eastbound NS practice struck a stopped NS practice on the identical monitor,’ NTSB mentioned in a press release to The Hill. ‘The wreckage from the hanging practice spilled onto an adjoining monitor and was struck by a westbound NS practice. The collision led to the derailment of an unknown variety of vehicles.’” • Collision Scheduled Railroading. This retains taking place, doesn’t it?

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At present’s Concern & Greed Index: 79 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 77 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 75 (Excessive Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Mar 4 at 12:37:23 PM ET.

Rapture Index: Closes down one on local weather. ” The dearth of exercise has downgraded this class” [Rapture Ready]. Report Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 187. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is sweet.) NOTE on #42 Plagues: “The coronavirus pandemic has maxed out this class.” Extra sincere than most! • Goat sacrificers irrelevant? Atlantic meridional overturning circulation irrelevant?

Class Warfare

“SPEEA: Pilot Contract Talks Illustrate Boeing Security Tradition Issues” [Yahoo Finance]. “The union for Flight Technical and Security Pilots with Boeing’s Flight Operations Group says it has first-hand expertise of the sorts of safety-culture issues [the FAA] reported on earlier this week…. ‘To place this in context,’ [Ray Goforth, SPEEA Executive Director] mentioned, ‘Boeing has systematically hollowed out the SPEEA Pilot Instructors Unit, changing valued Boeing experience with contractors. The ensuing degradation in knowledgeable recommendation given to Boeing’s airline clients is one other instance of the safety-culture downside highlighted by the FAA.’…. In one other unusual flip, Boeing requested SPEEA’s negotiators to signal a retroactive Non-Disclosure Settlement in order that the union couldn’t inform its members how a lot they had been being underpaid in comparison with their friends. SPEEA declined; Goforth referred to as the request ‘bizarre.’” • Seems like that new lawyer Boeing promoted to go up HR is already arduous at work!

Information of the Wired

“Impact of intestine microbiome modulation on muscle perform and cognition: the PROMOTe randomised managed trial” [Nature]. “Research recommend that inducing intestine microbiota modifications might alter each muscle physiology and cognitive behaviour. Intestine microbiota might play a job in each anabolic resistance of older muscle, and cognition. On this placebo managed double blinded randomised managed trial of 36 twin pairs (72 people), aged ≥60, every twin pair are block randomised to obtain both placebo or prebiotic every day for 12 weeks. Resistance train and branched chain amino acid (BCAA) supplementation is prescribed to all members. Outcomes are bodily perform and cognition…. Our outcomes display that low-cost and available intestine microbiome interventions might enhance cognition in our ageing inhabitants.” • Now do Lengthy Covid.

“Movement Blur All of the Approach Down” [Pierre Cusa]. “Movement blur began out purely as a movie artifact, the results of a topic shifting whereas the digital camera’s shutter is open. This artifact turned out to be fascinating, particularly for movies, as a result of it improves the perceptual similarity between a video and a pure scene, one thing I’ll dive into on this part…. [T]right here already exists a pure blur on the photoreceptor stage, a phenomenon typically referred to as movement smear. So why can we add synthetic movement blur in movies, and what’s the hyperlink between movement smear and movement blur?” • Do quite a lot of math, so MEGO. Nonetheless, as a photographer, I really like movement blur. Reasonably like Millet attempting to color a peasant truly dropping a potato right into a furrow; not as simple because it seems!

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Contact info for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn the way to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn the way to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are effective! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! If you’d like your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize by utilizing your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) right here. From TH:

TH writes: “This pretty flower is a Scabiosa columbaria, ‘Pink Mist’. It lives on the Sherman Library and Gardens in Corona Del Mar, California. I simply love the whole lot about it, however principally the colour!” Good bokeh!

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Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:

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