Over the past yr, two totally different units of information have yielded two very totally different theories of the place Democrats stand heading into 2024.
On one hand, there’s polling. Survey after survey reveals President Biden even or trailing in opposition to Donald J. Trump. Voters, particularly younger and nonwhite voters, seem extraordinarily dissatisfied with the president. Regardless of how good the financial system seems to be to economists, most voters nonetheless say it’s unhealthy.
Alternatively, there’s election outcomes. Nearly each time polls carry Democrats down, there’s a particular election consequence to carry them again up. Particular elections happen exterior common election cycles to fill a vacated seat, and general Democrats have outperformed Mr. Biden’s 2020 outcomes by 4 proportion factors in these elections for the reason that Supreme Courtroom’s overturning of Roe v. Wade, in line with knowledge compiled by Day by day Kos.
The constraints of polling are well-known, particularly one yr earlier than an election. The constraints of counting on particular elections, alternatively, aren’t as effectively understood. In contrast to polls, particular election outcomes are arduous information, which make them tempting to view as a transparent learn into the 2024 citizens.